By Rajiv K Chaturvedi, Ranjith Gopalakrishnan, Mathangi Jayaraman, Govindasamy Bala, N V Joshi, Raman Sukumar and N H Ravindranath
The authors are from the Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore. nh.ravi@gmail.com,
An assessment of the impact of climate change on forest ecosystems in India has been attempted in this paper, based on climate projections of the Regional Climate Model of the Hadley Centre and the dynamic global vegetation model IBIS for A2 and B2 scenarios. A forest vulnerability index for India has also been worked out based on the dynamic global vegetation modelling and observed datasets of forest density, forest biodiversity as well as model predicted vegetation type shift estimates for forested grids.
Climate is one of the most important determinants of vegetation patterns globally and has significant influence on the distribution, structure and ecology of forests. Several climate-vegetation studies have shown that certain climatic regimes are associated with particular plant communities or functional types. It is therefore logical to assume that changes in climate would alter the distribution of forest ecosystems. Based on a range of vegetation modelling studies, UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2007 suggest potential forest dieback towards...
