Policy | VOL. 16, ISSUE 97

Monsoon Mission

The Indian summer (southwest) monsoon is referred to as the lifeline of India, as variability in any of its aspects (onset, withdrawal and quantum of rainfall) can greatly influence agricultural yield, economy, water resources, power generation and the entire ecosystem. If variations in monsoon rainfall are known well in advance, it would be possible to reduce the diverse impacts related to excess or deficient rainfall. A reliable monsoon forecast with sufficient lead time is essential for policy makers and farmers for planning and sowing of crops, as also making long-lead plans for the future. Yet, the accurate prediction of monsoon rainfall remained a challenge for decades. The conventional forecast in use so far is based on the statistical approach and is low skilled in forecasting rainfall anomalies. Keeping this in mind, the National Monsoon Mission (NMM) was envisaged in 2012 by the Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES) to develop a dynamical coupled prediction system specially suited for the Indian region that would show high predictive skills with an anomaly correlation of 0.6 and above. The future goals of the NMM would be not only to improve the weather and climate forecast during the four monsoon months of June, July, August, September (JJAS) but to provide skilful prediction throughout the year at different space and time scales right up to the regional levels. The long range...

To purchase this article, kindly sign in

Comments are closed.