Planning n Mitigation | VOL. 12, ISSUE 72, May-June 2012 |

Predicting Extreme Events

Any disastrous event such as a plane crash, a train accident, a powerful earthquake or a cyclone, stock market crash, a young person suffering a heart attack, collapse of a sea wall or bridges over rivers, and even mass extinctions such as that of the dinosaurs around 65 million years ago, are events that occur with extremely low, but finite probability. Such events are traditionally known to follow, as does radioactive decay, the statistical distribution known as the Poisson Distribution....

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