Climate Model Successfully Predicts Arabian Sea Cyclones
"A climate model for cyclones over the Arabian Sea simulated by researchers from Princeton University, USA in collaboration with National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), USA represented among one of the first times that a projected climate model of cyclones synchronized with actual observations of cyclonic storm activity.
A successful prediction The paper on the climate model by Hiroyuki Murakami et al. (2017) which predicted that global warming could lead to an increase in extremely severe cyclonic storms (ESCS) formation in the Arabian Sea by 2015, was published in the journal Nature Climate Change in November 2017. The HiFLOR climate model of cyclones in the Arabian Sea utilized in the study successfully predicted the extremely severe cyclonic storms that were observed over the Arabian Sea in 2014. The climate model of cyclones over the Arabian Sea found that the occurrence of post-monsoonal extremely severe cyclonic storms showed significant increase in activity between 1990 and 2015, out of which, the predictions for the latter period matched the recent extremely severe cyclonic storms that occurred over the Arabian Sea. There is a limited amount of accurate long-term data on extremely severe cyclonic activity over the Arabian
The successful prediction of the recent cyclones in the Arabian Sea by Princeton University researchers along with the NOAA using climate models with temperature rise and atmospheric pollutants as variables raises poignant questions over climate change.