During the week, Northeast Monsoon was weak and only isolated light rainfall occurred over Arunachal Pradesh, Assam & Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram & Tripura and Odisha on one/two days of the week. Light rain and snow occurred over Jammu & Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh on one/two days of the week. Only rainfall occurred at most places over Andaman & Nicobar Islands with heavy rain at isolated places on many days of the week. All the Sub-Divisions of India received largely deficient or no rainfall except in Andaman & Nicobar Islands, Arunachal Pradesh received excess rainfall. The western disturbance as an upper air cyclonic circulation was over East Afghanistan and adjoining Pakistan, over north Pakistan & adjoining Jammu & Kashmir on 5th. The induced cyclonic circulation extending up to 0.9 km. above mean sea level was over central Pakistan and adjoining west Rajasthan on 4th, over Haryana & neighboring areas on 5th . Due to the above two systems rain and snow occurred at isolated places over Jammu & Kashmir on 5th, 6th & 7th January and over Himachal Pradesh on 5th January. Last week’s trough of low at mean sea level over southeast Bay of Bengal and adjoining Andaman Sea was seen over southeast Bay of Bengal and adjoining equatorial Indian Ocean on 4th and became less marked on 5th A fresh trough of low at mean sea level lies over South Andaman Sea & adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal with embeded cyclonic circulation on 5th, under its influence a low pressure area formed over southeast Bay of Bengal & adjoining south Andaman Sea. The low pressure area moved westwards and it was seen as a trough of low at mean sea level over southwest Bay of Bengal off Sri Lanka and Tamil Nadu Coast with an embedded cyclonic circulation on the 9th and from Equatorial Indian Ocean to Gulf of Mannar on 10th. Under the influence of the above two systems rainfall occurred at most/many places over Andaman & Nicobar Islands between 0830 hours IST of 3rd January and 0830 hours IST of 7th January with isolated heavy rainfall 0830 hours IST of 5th January and 0830 hours IST of 6th January. Under the influence of the 2nd system rainfall occurred at a few places over Tamil Nadu & Puducherry and light rain at isolated places over Kerala between 0830 hours IST of 9th January and 0830 hours IST of 10th January. Fog and Cold Wave Dense to very dense fog occurred at many places over East Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Punjab; at a few places over Assam & Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram & Tripura, Bihar, West Rajasthan, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal on most of the days of the week; at isolated places over Uttarakhand, East Madhya Pradesh on one/two days of the week. Cold to severe cold wave conditions prevailed at many places over East Uttar Pradesh, Bihar; at a few places over Gangetic West Bengal, Haryana, Punjab, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal, West Uttar Pradesh on many days of the week and at isolated places over Telangana, Odisha on many of the days and East Madhya Pradesh, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu & Kashmir, Vidarbha, West Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, East Rajasthan, Jharkhand on one/two days of the week. The lowest minimum temperature 0.2°C was recorded at Alwar (East Rajasthan) in the plains of the country on 6th. Cold day to severe cold day conditions prevailed at many places over Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Bihar, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal on most days of the week and at isolated places over Haryana, Punjab, Gangetic West Bengal on a few days of the week. The lowest maximum temperature of 10.4°C (departure from normal 11.4°C) recorded at Gorakhpur (East Uttar Pradesh) in the plains of the country on 6th. A fresh Western Disturbance as a trough in mid and upper tropospheric westerlies was located over Afghanistan.
(Week 04-10 January 2018) The cumulative rainfall Sub-Division wise for the week (04-10 January 2018) predicted by IMD GFS model shows that Andaman & Nicobar Islands, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram & Tripura, Tamil Nadu & Puducherry, South Interior Karnataka, Kerala and Lakshadweep would receive excess rainfall, whereas only Andaman & Nicobar Islands received excess rainfall, as excess rainfall predicted .Other Sub-Divisions received deficient, Largely deficient or no rainfall. The prediction was right for the Sub-divisions Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh.
Overall Model has predicted well for 30 out of 36 Sub-Divisions of the country.
During the week, rainfall over the country as a whole was 80 per cent below the long period average (LPA). Southern Peninsula received normal rainfall and Central India had not received any rainfall. The other two received largely deficient rainfall. Details of the rainfall distribution over the four broad homogeneous regions of India are given below:
For the country as a whole, cumulative rainfall was (-81 per cent) of LPA as on 10th January 2018. Cumulative rainfall was deficient over Southern Peninsula and East & Northeast India. Rainfall was excess over Andaman & Nicobar Islands, Arunachal Pradesh and Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram & Tripura, deficient over Assam & Meghalaya & Lakshadweep. The other Sub-divisions received largely deficient/ no rainfall over the rest of the Sub-divisions of the country. Details of the rainfall distribution over the four broad homogeneous regions of India are given below:
FORECAST FOR THE WEEK (12-18 January 2018) No significant weather in terms of system and rainfall during the period. However, extreme north India, extreme southern peninsula and parts of south Bay of Bengal and eastern Bay of Bengal will remain active. Overall rainfall departure will be negative over the country.
No significant weather in terms of system and rainfall during the period. However, extreme north India, extreme southern peninsula and parts of southern Bay of Bengal and eastern Bay of Bengal will remain active. Overall rainfall departure will be negative over the country.
04 JANUARY 2018: ANDAMAN & NICOBAR ISLANDS: MAYABANDAR-4, PORT BLAIR-4, NANCOWRIE-3, HUT BAY-2, LONG ISLAND-2; ARUNACHAL PRADESH: TUTING-2, ALONG (AWS)-1; ASSAM & MEGHALAYA: SHILLONG-1. 05 JANUARY 2018: ANDAMAN & NICOBAR ISLANDS: NANCOWRIE 4, HUT BAY-3, MAYABANDAR-3, PORT BLAIR-1, CARNICOBAR-1. 06 JANUARY 2018: ANDAMAN & NICOBAR ISLANDS: CARNICOBAR (IAF)-8, HUT BAY-3, MAYABANDAR-3, LONG ISLAND-2, PORT BLAIR-2, NANCOWRIE-2, CARNICOBAR-1. 07 JANUARY 2018: ANDAMAN & NICOBAR ISLANDS: MAYABANDAR-6, LONG ISLAND-1, NANCOWRY-1; ARUNACHAL PRADESH: ROING-1, ALONG (AWS)-1. 08 JANUARY 2018: TAMILNADU & PUDUCHERRY: KUZHITHURAI-2; LAKSHADWEEP: MINICOY-1. 09 JANUARY 2018: NIL 10 JANUARY 2018: TAMILNADU & PUDUCHERRY: KARAIKAL-10, CHIDAMBARAM AWS-9, CHIDAMBARAM-9, SETHIATHOPE-5, NAGAPATTINAM-5, ANAIKARANCHATRAM-4, NANNILAM-4, SIRKALI-4, NEEDAMANGALAM-3, TIRUVARUR-3, MAYILADUTHURAI-3, TRANGAMBADI-3, SRIMUSHNAM-3, THIRUVIDAIMARUTHUR-3, ADUTHURAI AWS-3, TIRUVAIYARU-3, THIRUTHURAIPOONDI-3, VALLAM-2, KUMBAKONAM-2, VEDARANYAM-2, VALANGAIMAN-2, PARANGIPETTAI-2, THANJAVUR-2, THANJAVUR PTO-2, MANNARGUDI-2, KODAVASAL-2, PAPANASAM-2, TIRUKATTUPALLI-2, PANDAVAIYAR HEAD-2, JAYAMKONDAM-1, KEERANUR-1, MADUKKUR-1, PATTUKOTTAI-1, THUVAKUDI IMTI-1, K.M.KOIL-1, THIRUMANUR-1, GRAND ANAICUT-1, CUDDALORE-1, KODAIKANAL-1, GANDARVAKOTTAI-1, ORTHANAD-1, TIRUMAYAM-1.